Oscar Picks!

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

I have loved Christopher Plummer since The Sound of Music; Woody Harrelson has been doing some good work lately; Stanley Tucci is incredibly talented, I love that his range extends from the gay fashion editor in The Devil Wears Prada to the virile husband in Julie & Julia; and Matt Damon looks AMAZING in Invictus; but this is Christoph Waltz's Oscar to lose. Seriously, have you seen Inglourious Basterds? I thought his acceptance speeches at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards were kind of cheesy, but I'm still excited to hear what he has to say on Sunday night.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire

I think Penelope Cruz and Maggie Gyllenhall fall into the "honor to be nominated" category and that in another year Anna Kendrick might have had a real chance, since the Academy loves to award promising young ingenues. And while Vera Farmiga was fantastic, it's no surprise that Mo'Nique will take home the Oscar. I have no plans to see Precious because the commercials were so sad that I wanted to off myself -- and frankly, it really bothers me how long the stupid title is -- but from what I've heard, she totally deserves it. Well played, Mo'Nique.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Jeremy Renner and Colin Firth already won just by being nominated, and I think that if George Clooney hadn't won for Syriana a few years ago, he would be a more serious contender. I haven't seen Invictus, but I'm willing to bet that Morgan Freeman would be a deserving winner and I kind of hope he pulls off a win. However, the time -- and the role -- is right for Jeff Bridges to win and I think he will. 

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourney Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Neither Helen Mirren nor Gabourney Sidibe have any buzz going for them whatsoever, so I'm counting them out of the running. In another year, Carey Mulligan might have had a shot with her role in An Education. But we all know it's coming down to Bullock v. Streep, Oscar Death Match 2010. Now, if Meryl doesn't win, it will be a travesty. It's gonna be her, or I will lose my faith in humanity.

WRITING -- ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, District 9
Nick Hornby, An Education
Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche, In the Loop
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

This looks like a tight race to me. An Education has an outside chance at best; if Precious wins anything aside from Supporting Actress, this may be it; but don't count out District 9 and Up in the Air. I say In the Loop should win but District 9 will win.

WRITING -- ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman, The Messenger
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Bob Peterson and Pete Docter, Up

Again, a tight race! I don't think the Coen Brothers are at the front of the pack, and the writers of Up should feel honored with the nomination. The Messenger could pick up a win here, but don't count out Quentin Tarantino or Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker. I think that this award will go to one of those two pictures, and I think it will go to one whose director does not win. (Does that make sense? It does in my head.) I'm not sure who it's going to be in the end, so I'm going to guess Quentin Tarantino, since I doubt he'll get the Directing award but the Academy should recognize the achievement that this movie is.

DIRECTING

James Cameron, Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

I think Jason Reitman has a long career ahead of him and will be nominated again in the future, so he shouldn't feel bad if he doesn't win. I doubt it will be Lee Daniels, I don't think there's that much... affection? for Precious. Tarantino is not a great fit with the Academy, I don't think. He's probably like their red-headed stepchild. That leads us to the other main "feud" this year, between exes Bigelow and Cameron. I'm not going to lie, I would just plain rather see Bigelow win for The Hurt Locker (since I think it may be the only major award it will receive), so that's my pick.

BEST PICTURE

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Ugh. I am hating the whole 10 nominees thing! And seriously, if there are 10 Best Picture nominees there should be 10 Directing nominees. It's a little preposterous. I really have no idea who's leading the pack in this category, but I'm going to guess Avatar. I don't feel great about it (that movie was SO long, and unnecessarily so!) so I'm not going to elaborate.